Israelis Head to Polls With No Clear Winner in Sight

Seven million three hundred thousand Israeli citizens went to the polls on Tuesday to choose their next parliament. The vote marks the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza. Voters face a choice between two major blocs, neither of which is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The pro-Netanyahu coalition is built around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. It includes the far-right parties Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Conservative religious parties United Torah Judaism and Shas also joined this alliance. The opposing bloc unites four Jewish-led movements, including the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats of Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Together alliance is part of this group, as is the party led by opposition leader Yair Lapid.

A survey by public broadcaster KAN, released before a publication ban took effect on Friday, projected the opposition would win 52 seats. The same poll gave Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats. The remaining 18 seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, primarily the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra'am and the Joint List. Both major coalitions have ruled out partnering with these Arab-led parties for now. This dynamic could lead to a minority government or force another round of elections.

Domestic issues drive much of the voting intent. Many voters demand accountability for security failures prior to the 2023 attacks. Others are angry about the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also object to Netanyahu's judicial reforms, which they argue weaken liberal democratic norms. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal factions view this vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

The election occurs as Israel faces increased international scrutiny. Several allies have sanctioned settlements in the West Bank, and many nations have condemned ongoing attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out of the session. Some jeered and booed during his speech.

Personal stakes are high for Netanyahu, who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges he has fought since 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A defeat would leave him more exposed in his ongoing trial, which could result in a prison sentence if he is convicted. A new government would also influence the prospects for an inquiry into the 2023 attacks.

Roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel are eligible to vote. Polling suggests their turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing Arab parties to win up to 15 seats. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, a high for decades. The Supreme Court recently reversed a decision by the Central Elections Committee that had barred the Joint List and Ra'am. The court also forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.