Citrinowicz: Third U.S.-Iran War Phase Looms After Nov. 3 Midterms

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, warned that the United States and Israel will likely resume military operations against Iran shortly after the U.S. midterm elections conclude on Nov. 3. He characterized a third phase of the conflict as almost inevitable, predicting it will be more destructive than the previous two engagements.

Citrinowicz, who spent more than two decades as an intelligence official in the Israeli military, stated that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. He noted that his earlier assessment, which argued that striking the Islamic regime would not lead to regime change but instead expand the conflict, has been largely confirmed by events.

The two nations have fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities, lasting 12 days before a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup, with Israeli strikes targeting senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the next round of fighting to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication systems, including internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also identified the possibility of limited Iranian ground attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, intended to maximize economic damage to the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes on bases have paused, but the conflict remains active. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms on Truth Social, alleging the country was making up fake hits and mines.

Iranian demands include sanctions relief, reparations for damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology, with potential retaliation coming from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah targeting soft economic sites such as airports.

The human toll has exceeded 7,000 deaths in Iran, according to Western NGOs. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed, with additional deaths recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though approval from President Trump remains uncertain.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces a close election in the coming days, has spoken of finishing the job and toppling the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz suggested that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government, but warned that political calculation combined with an inflated Iranian development could trigger an unnecessary attack.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a limited diplomatic exit, noting that asking the government to change its identity would not succeed.