Lebanese Shi'ites Prefer State Control of Hezbollah Arsenal

A recent survey indicates that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now prefer the state to hold Hezbollah's weapons. The data was collected in September by Statistics Lebanon and reported in mid-October by Israeli and Lebanese media outlets. The results suggest a shift in sentiment among the community that has historically formed the backbone of Hezbollah's support base.

The poll surveyed 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. It found that 66.4% supported transferring the group's arsenal to the Lebanese state. Conversely, 29.6% wanted Hezbollah to retain its weapons. The group has long maintained that its arsenal is necessary to defend Lebanon against Israel.

Kataeb.org, the website of the Christian Kataeb Party, published additional findings from the survey. The site reported that 71.1% of respondents believed decisions on war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces appears high. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trusted the army. A majority, 51.1%, named the army as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security. Only 16.5% chose Hezbollah for that role.

The survey also measured satisfaction with the group's performance. Some 67.4% said Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. A further 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about its leadership. Despite this, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization. Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status continue to sustain its strength.

An earlier poll presented a different picture. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons. The gap between the two surveys raises questions about how wording and agenda may have shaped the responses.

Hezbollah has announced financial aid for families affected by the conflict. The group will provide up to $14,000 to eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed. It will offer up to $12,000 to eligible families in other areas. The new war that began in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon.