Brazil Voters Face 1.3 Point Margin in Final Presidential Poll

Flavio Bolsonaro holds a 1.3 point lead over incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the final polling released before the Sunday presidential run-off. The CNT/MDA survey, published on Saturday, places Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, indicating the race remains statistically tied.

This result marks a slight shift from the previous week's data from the same poll. A week earlier, Bolsonaro stood at 46.8 percent while Lula held 45.9 percent. In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out Lula, who received 45 percent. These figures confirm the contest has remained closely contested since the initial vote.

Campaigning concluded on Saturday with rallies in two distinct regions. Lula, an 80-year-old leader seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, addressed hundreds of supporters at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat and waving a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck, he focused his message on national identity. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," he said, referencing his rival's ties to US President Donald Trump.

Bolsonaro's supporters gathered in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais for a parallel event. Hundreds of motorcyclists, dressed in yellow national football shirts, attended the rally. Ebert Dorigo, one of the participants, told AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered a reliance on government welfare. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said. He argued that the country requires a change in direction because current policies have left some citizens believing improvement comes without hard work.

The campaign has featured sharp divisions over economic policy and crime. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and reduce government spending. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The two candidates held a final debate on Friday, maintaining a calmer tone than previous exchanges while still trading accusations about economic management.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the voting decision as difficult. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," she told AFP. The election will determine whether Brazil retains its current left-wing administration or shifts further to the right, a trend observed across the region.

Voting takes place on Sunday. The outcome will finalize the presidency of Brazil, with the winner taking office following the standard transition period. The result will also signal the direction of the country's economic and social policies for the next term.