Factories close as service jobs take over Brazil's presidential race

The map of who works where in Brazil has changed enough to alter the politics of its cities.

Osasco, a municipality near São Paulo once known for heavy industry, is now called the region's Silicon Valley. Closed factories stand next to five new shopping malls and offices for delivery app companies. The city supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022. In the first round this month, voters turned to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won that round nationally, and every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to take the presidency.

Gilberto Almazan, the leader of a local metalworkers' union, points to the physical changes in the city. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile factories have vanished. He describes the traditional union movement that helped Lula rise as stuck in the Middle Ages. Many workers now drive cars, deliver food, or run small trades. Almazan calls this shift Uber-isation. He argues that these workers value flexible hours more than the collective welfare programs Lula traditionally offered.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, says Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making the economic transition feel sharper. He calls Lula a victim of his own success. Unemployment has fallen to a record low under Lula's current term, and Brazil was removed from the UN Hunger Map. Yet Lapper describes a crisis of expectations. Residents feel squeezed by higher prices, household debt, and high interest rates, even if their employment status has improved.

Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who previously supported Lula, blames the government for a heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who usually abstained from voting, plans to support Bolsonaro because she sees no change since Lula returned. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro offers the hope of change. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while keeping some of Lula's welfare programs. He denies corruption accusations against him.

Thirty-three million people did not vote in the first round, the highest abstention rate since 1998. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies. The campaign says one event in São Paulo drew about a million people, and aerial footage of the crowd spread widely online. Lula, 80, has used social media to counter claims about his age, referring to himself as the king of selfies.

In Maré, one of Rio de Janeiro's largest favelas, abstention was above average, but Lula still won the local vote. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 British pounds a month, praises Lula's minimum wage increase, two days off for workers, and free essential medicines. She doubts Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing police raids in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Andreza Dionísio, a resident, blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for the low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling gaps with childcare, employment advice, and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and opposition to abortion. The first round results looked more like a rejection of Lula than a full endorsement of his rival. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula, and the outcome depends on whether voters believe he can offer a new story.