9,000 Hectares of New Poppy Fields Detected in Pakistan

Opium production is moving across the border from Afghanistan into Pakistan.

Satellite imagery and interviews with local farmers indicate a steep rise in poppy cultivation in Balochistan, Pakistan's southwestern province. David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan's illicit drugs industry, identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Balochistan alone. His analysis, detailed in an August report for the British firm Alcis, points to a new hub for global opium production in the remote borderlands shared by three countries.

The shift follows the Taliban's imposition of a wide-ranging ban on illicit narcotics in 2022, which sharply reduced Afghanistan's output. Mansfield argues that the ban, combined with instability in the tri-border area, created conditions for widespread cultivation in neighboring regions. He describes the area as a global center for opium production, noting that experts caution cultivation could climb further in 2027. This potential increase could boost heroin supplies on international markets and generate income for armed groups.

Most of the new cultivation in Pakistan is concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, stated that cultivation is rampant and allegedly backed by senior military officials and pro-government power brokers. He claims these figures take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected that claim. He said cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year, but Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of such eradication.

Farmers in the region report paying bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. One anonymous grower in Killa Abdullah alleged that when media coverage draws pressure from above, growers and their backers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, said insecurity, drought, and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming. He noted that the demand and income from poppies now far exceed those from fruit.

Afghan opium farmers from Kandahar and Helmand provinces are driving much of this surge. They cross the border to lease land, bringing money and expertise. Kakar said these growers invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year, and many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern has taken hold in Iran, particularly in the Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers, drawing on family ties. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields in the region, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication. Mansfield described a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in these border regions. Iranian authorities, preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February, have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop.

Opium cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output, and several southwestern provinces. Farmers in Badakhshan and Helmand have protested and defied the ban due to drought, debt, and economic hardship. Mansfield stated that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, though it remained limited and concealed within wheat fields and behind compound walls.

A recent directive barring home searches for poppy or opium without a court order appears to be a concession by the Taliban. Mansfield warned that growing numbers of farmers in the southwest may read this as a signal that authorities will tolerate cultivation beyond walled compounds. He noted that armed groups compete for tax revenues from the drugs trade and other cross-border activities, including people smuggling and trade in fuel and minerals.

Islamabad has denied reports of widespread opium cultivation and insists any poppy crops found have been destroyed. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that opium production in Pakistan remains marginal, though the agency acknowledged that scarce regional data and sharp rises in eradication figures point toward a certain degree of spillover effects. The Interior Ministry and the provincial government in Balochistan did not respond to requests for comment.