Moscow Airports Ground Flights for Up to Nine Hours Amid Daily Drone Alerts

Travelers flying through Moscow face daily interruptions as Ukrainian drone strikes force the city's four main airports to halt operations. According to data from the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo suspended flights nearly every day in October. On several days, the closures lasted as long as nine hours, leaving passengers stranded and disrupting schedules across the capital.

The disruption follows a strategy outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine intends to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Addressing airlines, insurers, and the public, he warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The immediate cause of these groundings is a safety procedure used by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, the rule requires closing airspace over a region or around specific airports if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are fired, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Once triggered, strict limits apply to all air traffic. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, explained that every drone presents a military threat under this framework.

Laneckij compared the current situation to the disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, noting that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis. Military analyst Jan Matvejev agreed that Ukraine can easily disrupt traffic around Moscow without fully closing the airspace. He noted that simple drones without warheads or long-range capabilities are sufficient to trigger the protocol. Matvejev added that Ukraine's arms industry can currently produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones each day.

Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, cited well-informed sources to suggest that Ukraine's efforts are just getting started. Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses have not fully neutralized the threat. He stated that if it were possible to shoot the drones down, Russian forces would have done so by now. He also suggested that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if they had them available.

Both experts warned of risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which investigators said was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones. That crash killed 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since that accident.

Matvejev explained that while shooting a low-flying drone with a machine gun poses a low risk to aircraft, missiles present a greater danger. He noted that defects common in mass production could send a missile toward a nearby airliner. He also pointed out that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. A drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be large, he said, weighing dozens of kilograms.

Airports beyond Moscow have also experienced impacts. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, with Zelenskyy reporting hits on Kyiv's airport and Boryspil in September. The future of foreign airline operations in Russia will depend on the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, sending ticket prices soaring.

Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said whether these airlines stay or leave depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced.