Knesset Election: 53-to-48 Split Leaves Coalition Math Tangled

The count of Tuesday's election has produced a fractured mandate for Israel.

The Central Elections Committee reported on Wednesday evening that more than five million votes had been counted. The official tally reached approximately 88 percent. Double-envelope ballots were still in the queue. Those votes were scheduled for processing overnight.

Double-envelope ballots allow specific groups to vote outside their assigned polling stations. These groups include soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners, and certain election workers. The final count of these ballots could shift the seat totals.

The current projection gives Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats. The opposition bloc is projected to take 48 seats. Neither side has reached the 61 seats required for a majority. The Arab parties won a combined 19 seats, a record high for that group.

Likud, Netanyahu's party, is projected to win 26 seats. That result would make it the largest party in the Knesset. United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit are each expected to take seven seats. The Religious Zionist Party is projected to win six seats. Pre-election polls had given Likud fewer seats and granted more to its coalition partners.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats. That makes it the largest party in the opposition bloc. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad is projected to take 12 seats. Yair Golan's The Democrats are projected to win eight seats. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu is projected to take seven seats.

Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's The Reservists-Economic party are both projected to miss the 3.25 percent threshold. The Joint List is projected at 12 seats. Ra'am is projected at seven seats. Most pre-election polls showed the opposition ahead. They identified Yashar as the biggest party in that camp.

Likud accused the Arab parties of fraud on Wednesday. The party cited bribery, intimidation, and ballot manipulation. Likud demanded an immediate investigation by law enforcement. The accusation followed a high turnout among Arab voters.

A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot appears unlikely. Eisenkot has refused to serve under Netanyahu. He has rejected a rotation arrangement. Other opposition leaders have ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. President Isaac Herzog urged leaders to approach the consultations with open minds. "We must do everything, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," he said.

Yair Golan said he would meet with three opposition leaders on Thursday. He did not name them. Golan urged the opposition to form a government with the Arab parties. He noted that the opposition has 65 seats if the Arab parties are included. "I know how to count to 120," Golan wrote on social media.

Liberman rejected the idea of Arab parties in government before the election. Eisenkot has stated that the leader of the largest opposition party should be the candidate for prime minister. The bloc has not announced an agreement on that point.

A minority government is also a possibility. Such a government would win a confidence vote without 61 seats. Arab parties could potentially back the opposition in that scenario. Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party was ready to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government. MK Ahmad Tibi said the opposition could form a government if it has the courage. Bennett, whose 2021 government included Ra'am, has since taken a firm stance against including any Arab faction in a future coalition.