Climate Outlook: OAS Projects Severe Drought and Flooding for 2027

The Organization of American States (OAS) issued a warning on October 28 regarding the expected intensity of the 2026-2027 El Niño event. The intergovernmental body predicts the phenomenon will reach a 'very strong' intensity, bringing distinct risks of drought and flooding to specific regions across the Western Hemisphere.

The technical brief, titled 'El Niño 2026-2027: Outlook, Potential Impacts, and Anticipatory Action,' was co-authored by the OAS Department of Sustainable Development, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN). The document outlines a bifurcated meteorological impact on the continent and the Caribbean.

According to the report, the Central American Dry Corridor, the insular Caribbean, and the Andean and Caribbean regions of Colombia, Venezuela, and the Amazon Basin face severe rainfall drops. In these areas, precipitation could decrease by up to 80 percent. The report identifies these zones as primary candidates for intense drought conditions.

Conversely, the document projects surplus precipitation in coastal Ecuador, northern Peru, and central-southern Chile. The La Plata Basin, which spans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, is also expected to experience heavy rainfall. These areas face high risks of severe flooding and landslides due to the excess water.

The OAS notes that the insular Caribbean and coastal regions will suffer acute rainfall deficits. These deficits are projected to cause marine intrusion into aquifers, contaminating freshwater supplies. The report states that urban rationing will likely follow as contamination spreads.

Water scarcity will also impact energy production. The brief states that drought conditions will compromise hydroelectric generation. This is critical because approximately 50 percent of the regional electricity matrix relies on hydropower, and more than 200 million people currently lack continuous water service.

Food security faces specific threats in the Dry Corridor. The report projects that rainfall scarcity will push between 500,000 and 750,000 people into Phase 3, or Acute Crisis, of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).

Andrés Sánchez, head of the Water Section at the OAS, emphasized that while the phenomenon cannot be avoided, its consequences can be managed. He stated, 'In addition to drawing attention to the very strong impact that the scientific community warns El Niño will have in 2027, this document seeks to call on countries to prepare in order to minimize those consequences, providing them with a guiding framework on how to do so.'

The roadmap urges governments to act during the final months of 2026. Recommended measures include strengthening early warning systems, planning alternative electricity supply sources, and mobilizing contingent funds. The report also advises distributing drought-resistant seeds and reinforcing health surveillance and vector control.

For island and hyper-arid territories, the document recommends prioritizing backup desalination technology and reducing technical water losses in distribution networks. It further stresses the need for regional cooperation to protect shared river basins and electrical interconnections, such as the La Plata Basin and the Electrical Interconnection System for Central America (SIEPAC). The OAS said the technical brief was compiled using data from the WMO, NOAA, IRI, CIIFEN, OLACDE, FEWS NET, PAHO/WHO, and the ILO.