48 percent: The number that defines the New Hampshire governor's race

Attorney Ciny Warmington and incumbent Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte stand at 48 percent each in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, according to polling conducted by 7NEWS and the University of New Hampshire. The survey, released on Sunday, November 1, places the two candidates in a statistical tie as voters head to the polls Tuesday. Software developer Stephen Villee received 2 percent of the vote in the same contest.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center has tracked voting intentions across the region for years. Director Andy Smith noted that the current political climate is driving high turnout among specific groups. He observed that Democratic voters in New England are highly motivated by the presence of President Donald Trump on the ballot. Smith stated that for many of these voters, casting a ballot is effectively a vote against the current president. He added that this motivation makes it difficult for Republicans to shift those voters toward their candidates.

In Massachusetts, the race for governor features Democrat Mauray Healey seeking a second term against Republican challenger Mike Minogue. The poll shows Healey leading with 55 percent of the vote. Minogue trails at 36 percent. Independent candidate Ashley James holds 4 percent of the support.

Federal races in the region also show Democratic advantages. In the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads Republican attorney John Deaton by 21 points. The poll did not provide specific percentage figures for this contest, only the margin of victory. In New Hampshire, U.S. Congressman Chris Pappas holds a 12-point lead over former Senator John Sununu. Pappas has the support of 54 percent of likely voters, while Sununu has 42 percent.

Smith analyzed the New Hampshire gubernatorial race as a contest tied to the federal ballot. He argued that the race is not solely between Ayotte and Warmington. Instead, he predicted that Democrats voting in the state Senate race would also vote for the Democrat in the governor's race. This dynamic suggests that the outcome of the top of the ticket in the state Senate may determine the winner in the governor's office.

Voters in New Hampshire and Massachusetts will cast their ballots Tuesday. The results will determine the next governor of Massachusetts and the composition of the U.S. Senate in both states. The New Hampshire governor's race remains the closest of the four major contests polled in the region.