Florida Early Vote Tops 5.1 Million, Tracking Ahead of 2022

More than 5.1 million Florida residents have already cast ballots in the 2026 midterm election, a figure that is on pace to exceed the 7.8 million votes recorded in the previous cycle. The Florida Division of Elections reported this total as Election Day approaches on Tuesday, marking a sharp increase in early participation compared to four years ago.

Sean Freeder, an associate professor at the University of North Florida and faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, predicts a high turnout election based on a decade of tracked trends. He attributes the surge to voters treating the contest as a referendum on the presidency, even though Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Freeder noted that raising the stakes typically drives midterm participation, mirroring the historical pendulum effect where the party holding the White House faces challenges in the subsequent midterms.

Voter motivations are diverging sharply by age and party affiliation. Recent University of South Florida graduate Michael Fusella cited affordability, immigration, and foreign policy as primary drivers for his vote. He specifically criticized the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict, describing it as a policy blunder that betrayed his expectations. In contrast, Laura Casati, who works with horses in Tallahassee, expressed confidence in the administration’s management of oil reserves. She dismissed concerns about rising fuel prices, stating that she is accustomed to hard work and expects the market to improve.

Freeder identified a distinct age-based break in Republican support. Older voters remain willing to stick with Trump despite disappointments, while younger voters appear more willing to break with the party at their first sign of dissatisfaction. This split is evident in polling data from the University of North Florida, which shows Democrat Angie Nixon trailing incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody by four points in the U.S. Senate race.

Despite Nixon’s association with the Democratic Socialist movement, Freeder’s polling suggests the label is not the primary factor affecting voters. Survey respondents expressed greater concern about the Hope Florida scandal than about Nixon’s socialist alignment. The controversy centers on a $10 million Medicaid settlement payment to a charity linked to First Lady Casey DeSantis, a payment for which an appeals court expunged a grand jury’s finding of misappropriation.

In the governor’s race, Democrat David Jolly is polling two points behind Republican Byron Donalds. Freeder noted that Jolly’s moderate stance and background as a former Republican are helping him compete effectively. He suggested that Jolly’s presence on the ballot may also help drive younger Democrats to the polls to support Nixon, creating a mutual benefit in the down-ballot races.