Texas polls show 55% Hispanic support eroding ahead of midterms

Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, who provided a record 55% of their support to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, are showing signs of returning to the Democratic column. With the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, this shift threatens to upend Republican expectations in a region that was once a reliable Republican stronghold.

The area’s political alignment changed rapidly in recent years. During the first Trump administration, border crossings were high, with more than 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under President Joe Biden. Trump’s 2024 campaign promised to end illegal crossings, a pledge that resonated with local voters. Since taking office, border crossings have dropped to their lowest levels in decades, helping him secure the historic Hispanic vote share in the state.

Recent polling data suggests that support has since waned. Surveys conducted since late summer show that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. They favor Democrats over Republicans by a substantial margin. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged the difficulty of the upcoming race. He noted that while most residents accept the deportation of criminals, the issue begins when productive, law-abiding people are removed.

Local business leaders reflect this changing sentiment. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and head of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote for a Democrat in November. He cited a lack of communication regarding the administration’s goals. Guerrero described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to only four or six members, illustrating the economic impact of the border crackdown.

In the state’s 15th congressional district, which was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a notional 18-point advantage, current polling shows a Democratic lead of five to six points. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA." Republican consultant Mike Madrid noted that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents, adding a layer of complexity to the voting pattern.

Republican campaigners acknowledge they are currently on the defensive. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as "purely a game of turnout." Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, credited Trump with "breaking through barriers" but admitted that "national political headwinds are real." At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices, with Baldwin stating, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

If current polling trends hold, the shift could have national implications. In Texas, a moderate swing back to Democrats could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not held in more than 30 years.