NBA Betting Trends: Defending Champions Struggle Offensively

101.7 points per game. That is the average offensive output for the New York Knicks, who currently rank 30th in the National Basketball Association standings. The defending champions face a difficult test on Tuesday evening when they host the Detroit Pistons at 8 p.m. ET. The game marks the first time since the 1970s that a team has begun a title defense with such a pronounced scoring disparity.

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the Knicks and Pistons matchup 10,000 times. In those simulations, the Under 219.5 total points line hits in 58.2% of scenarios. The model, which has returned nearly $19,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated picks since 2018, identifies this game as a prime candidate for a low-scoring affair. It sits on a 26-10 record on top-rated spread picks dating back to the previous season.

The Knicks' offensive struggles are stark against their defensive improvements. The team ranks 29th in shooting percentage at 40.8%. Conversely, their defensive unit is holding strong. They rank ninth in scoring defense, allowing 108 points per game. This is an improvement from last season, when they ranked fifth in that category by allowing 110.1 points per game. The Under total has already hit in three of the Knicks' three games this season.

The Pistons present a formidable defensive challenge. Detroit held the No. 3 scoring defense last year, allowing 109.6 points per game. This season, they have tightened that unit further. They now rank fifth in the league, allowing just 105.7 points per game. Pistons center Jalen Duren is listed as out for Tuesday's game due to a hamstring injury. His absence may further limit Detroit's offensive ceiling against a Knicks team that is already struggling to find rhythm.

The SportsLine team of experts has also identified value in player prop bets across the four-game slate. NBA expert Mike Barner targets Julius Randle of the Brooklyn Nets for Over 19.5 total points at odds of -102. Barner notes that Randle scored only 10 points on Sunday but played just 24 minutes due to a lopsided score. In his first two games of the season, Randle scored 33 and 23 points respectively, combining for 31 shot attempts and 19 free throw attempts.

Barner argues that Randle's usage rate will remain high given the lack of talent surrounding him on the Nets roster. He expects the Nets to keep the game relatively close against the Boston Celtics, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back set. The Celtics face the Nets at 7:30 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, Prop Bet Guy Doug selects Deni Avdija of the Portland Trail Blazers for Over 21.5 total points at odds of -119. Avdija has scored 18 and 26 points in his first two games this season.

Doug points out that Avdija's role remains consistent despite recent backcourt changes in Portland. Damian Lillard is serving in the role previously held by Shaedon Sharpe, while Ja Morant acts as a facilitator. Last season, Avdija cleared the 21.5 point line in 74% of games where he played at least 26 minutes. He averaged 24 points per game in that career year. The Trail Blazers host the Los Angeles Lakers at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

The remaining game on the slate features the Sacramento Kings against the San Antonio Spurs at 8 p.m. ET. Combining the picks for Randle, the Knicks-Pistons Under, and Avdija into a single parlay yields odds of +595. A $100 wager on that three-leg ticket would return $595 in profit. The SportsLine model and expert team continue to track these markets as the second week of the 2026-27 season unfolds.