Gas prices above $4 for four months put pressure on Republican midterm races
With the Iran conflict entering its eighth month, rising fuel costs are forcing Republican strategists to reassess their odds ahead of the November 3 election.
By Amelia Clarke ·
The national average price for gasoline has stayed above $4 a gallon for four months.
The cost of living is now a central issue in the midterm elections, and the ongoing war with Iran is complicating the Republican strategy.
President Donald Trump initially described the conflict as a brief operation that would last a few weeks. He has since referred to it as a "little detour." The war began in early 2026 and is now in its eighth month.
Oil prices reached their peak in May before falling in June. They surged again in September when Trump threatened to escalate the conflict. The national average price remained above $4 per gallon from mid-June through the Labor Day holiday.
Republican strategists reported to The Associated Press in early summer that they were seeing warning signs in key races. They noted that House districts Trump won easily in 2024 were becoming competitive. This shift came after an interim ceasefire agreement with Tehran in June unraveled within weeks.
Internal campaign polling indicates that voters are connecting the war to higher grocery prices and travel costs. Trump has dismissed these concerns as a "hoax" or "scam" created by Democrats. However, party leaders say the argument is not resonating with the electorate.
The conflict has expanded beyond the initial front lines. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports. A Saudi-led coalition responded with strikes on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. Over the weekend, the State Department reduced staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after intelligence suggested Iran was targeting American personnel.
Diesel prices remain near all-time highs. This is creating challenges for Republican candidates in competitive races in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. Trump continues to rally supporters, arguing that the economic impact has been less severe than expected. At a weekend rally in Michigan, he stated, "I thought gas would be double or triple. And it's a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs."
Source: ABC News
